Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.84 – 250.76

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569.5 ±9.3

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 93.12Rank 3Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 48.99Rank 20Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 118.73Rank 2Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652.9 ±9.3

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 95.68Rank 6Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 146.04Rank 8Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 9.04Rank 18Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1391, 3314, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1391, 3314, 2016

Auto

31.2 13%

Teleop

165.4 67%

Endgame

50.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1676, 694, 1923

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1676, 694, 1923

Auto

60.5 26%

Teleop

122.2 53%

Endgame

49.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score260.8pts

Blue projected score250.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.1
Score range: 206–306
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 648 vs event baseline 247.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569.5Season APEX652.9

31.2Auto60.5

165.4Teleop122.2

50.6Endgame49.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	110
teleop	176	147
endgame	79	48
foul	5	15
total	328	320

Result

Final score

328 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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