Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.52 – 319.07

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 192.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.9 ±12.1

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 43.72Rank 28Record 0-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 101.36Rank 21Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 64.44Rank 13Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 692.7 ±8.7

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 99.82Rank 5Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 43.98Rank 4Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 175.27Rank 1Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1599, 5353, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.5 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1599, 5353, 11104

Auto

21.6 11%

Teleop

96.3 49%

Endgame

77.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4575, 341, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4575, 341, 316

Auto

46.0 15%

Teleop

197.6 62%

Endgame

72.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score209.5pts

Blue projected score319.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.5
Score range: 168–361
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 235.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.9Season APEX692.7

21.6Auto46

96.3Teleop197.6

77.8Endgame72.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	91
teleop	13	337
endgame	24	130
foul	0	0
total	64	558

Result

Final score

64 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 192.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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