Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.97 – 220.77

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 71.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.3 ±10.7

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 18.83Rank 25Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 69.45Rank 5Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 182.69Rank 6Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.4 ±11

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 120.51Rank 7Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 123.34Rank 10Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -23.08Rank 23Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4637, 4575, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

271 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4637, 4575, 1676

Auto

51.0 20%

Teleop

153.2 59%

Endgame

53.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6921, 3136, 4342

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6921, 3136, 4342

Auto

32.2 15%

Teleop

106.9 49%

Endgame

77.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score271pts

Blue projected score220.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.2
Score range: 168–324
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 292.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.3Season APEX279.4

51Auto32.2

153.2Teleop106.9

53.7Endgame77.7

120Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	7
teleop	154	52
endgame	33	46
foul	15	0
total	243	105

Result

Final score

243 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 71.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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