Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.42 – 176.14

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 79.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.7 ±11.7

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 74.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 92.61Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 83.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±11.6

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 25.56Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 86.52Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 64.06Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4546, 2648, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 2648, 58

Auto

31.7 13%

Teleop

139.1 59%

Endgame

66.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5902, 7674, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5902, 7674, 4564

Auto

36.3 22%

Teleop

87.9 52%

Endgame

44.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250.4pts

Blue projected score176.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.3
Score range: 142–284
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 187.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.7Season APEX253.5

31.7Auto36.3

139.1Teleop87.9

66.6Endgame44.4

64Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	30
teleop	101	168
endgame	73	69
foul	5	5
total	188	272

Result

Final score

188 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 79.1 pts

Match videos

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