Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.02 – 276.33

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 157.46Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 32.17Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 155.39Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 620.3 ±9.3

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 18.01Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 116.53Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 141.79Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 133, 3597, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

345 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 133, 3597, 6324

Auto

64.1 19%

Teleop

197.3 60%

Endgame

67.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 509, 1922, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 509, 1922, 8046

Auto

39.6 14%

Teleop

161.3 59%

Endgame

73.5 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score345pts

Blue projected score276.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.7
Score range: 243–378
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 667 vs event baseline 185.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.3Season APEX620.3

64.1Auto39.6

197.3Teleop161.3

67.8Endgame73.5

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	59
teleop	180	143
endgame	98	76
foul	15	20
total	369	298

Result

Final score

369 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Match videos

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