Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.71 – 250.65

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

485 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.8 ±9.3

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 34.38Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 215.5Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 154.83Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.7 ±11.7

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 74.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 92.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 84.13Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1512, 238, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 238, 1058

Auto

91.9 25%

Teleop

198.4 53%

Endgame

81.2 22%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4546, 2648, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 2648, 58

Auto

31.0 13%

Teleop

140.6 60%

Endgame

64.4 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score404.7pts

Blue projected score250.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.1
Score range: 218–438
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 738 vs event baseline 183.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.8Season APEX359.7

91.9Auto31

198.4Teleop140.6

81.2Endgame64.4

0Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	36
teleop	275	132
endgame	102	80
foul	20	5
total	485	253

Result

Final score

485 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Match videos

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