Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.8 – 137.29

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±11.6

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 25.27Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 85.85Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 63.68Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±11

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 18.77Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 66.39Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 52.13Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5902, 7674, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5902, 7674, 4564

Auto

38.3 23%

Teleop

83.4 50%

Endgame

44.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1350, 4925, 4473

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1350, 4925, 4473

Auto

28.8 21%

Teleop

73.1 52%

Endgame

37.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.8pts

Blue projected score137.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.5
Score range: 104–208
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 183.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.5Season APEX296.7

38.3Auto28.8

83.4Teleop73.1

44.1Endgame37.9

29Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	35
teleop	111	41
endgame	48	34
foul	0	0
total	187	110

Result

Final score

187 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Match videos

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