Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.58 – 226.53

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.6 ±12.1

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 51.19Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 62.95Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 34.44Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.3 ±11

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 71.26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 63.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 91.62Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 811, 69, 9055

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 811, 69, 9055

Auto

19.8 14%

Teleop

82.8 57%

Endgame

43.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 172, 11336, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 172, 11336, 4761

Auto

28.9 13%

Teleop

119.3 53%

Endgame

78.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.6pts

Blue projected score226.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.9
Score range: 116–260
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 184.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.6Season APEX345.3

19.8Auto28.9

82.8Teleop119.3

43.8Endgame78.7

34Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	29
teleop	85	80
endgame	5	73
foul	0	0
total	125	182

Result

Final score

125 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts

Match videos

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