Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.39 – 149.35

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.3 ±9.3

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 139.2Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 114.06Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 15.13Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±11

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 23.02Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 70.04Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 56.29Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8046, 1922, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8046, 1922, 509

Auto

33.5 13%

Teleop

157.4 59%

Endgame

75.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1350, 4925, 4473

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1350, 4925, 4473

Auto

30.8 20%

Teleop

88.2 57%

Endgame

34.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score268.4pts

Blue projected score149.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119
Score range: 116–301
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 183.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.3Season APEX296.7

33.5Auto30.8

157.4Teleop88.2

75.4Endgame34.8

33Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	23
teleop	178	12
endgame	68	49
foul	0	5
total	309	89

Result

Final score

309 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 pts

Match videos

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