Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

358.77 – 191.14

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 161.72Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 36.18Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 160.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±11.6

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 92.44Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 30.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 68.69Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 133, 3597, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 133, 3597, 6324

Auto

64.5 19%

Teleop

210.9 61%

Endgame

71.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7674, 5902, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7674, 5902, 4564

Auto

37.2 21%

Teleop

94.1 52%

Endgame

49.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score358.8pts

Blue projected score191.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.6
Score range: 158–392
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 183.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.3Season APEX253.5

64.5Auto37.2

210.9Teleop94.1

71.5Endgame49.7

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	45
teleop	147	35
endgame	53	20
foul	30	5
total	295	105

Result

Final score

295 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 75 pts

Match videos

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