Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.81 – 233.1

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

285 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.3 ±11

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 66.26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 57.38Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 86.17Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.7 ±11.7

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 67.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 87.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 77.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 172, 11336, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 172, 11336, 4761

Auto

26.0 12%

Teleop

108.8 51%

Endgame

77.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4546, 2648, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 2648, 58

Auto

22.7 10%

Teleop

127.9 58%

Endgame

69.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.8pts

Blue projected score233.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 177–266
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 182.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.3Season APEX359.7

26Auto22.7

108.8Teleop127.9

77.9Endgame69.9

26Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	65
teleop	153	174
endgame	79	41
foul	10	25
total	285	305

Result

Final score

285 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 pts

Match videos

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