Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.95 – 350.35

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.8 ±9.3

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 39.75Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 219.76Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 159.44Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 159.2Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 33.77Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 157.38Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1512, 238, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

419 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 238, 1058

Auto

90.7 23%

Teleop

212.5 55%

Endgame

85.0 22%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 133, 3597, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 133, 3597, 6324

Auto

66.0 20%

Teleop

195.4 58%

Endgame

73.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score419pts

Blue projected score350.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.6
Score range: 316–453
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.8Season APEX544.3

90.7Auto66

212.5Teleop195.4

85Endgame73.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	80
teleop	158	144
endgame	109	56
foul	40	10
total	360	290

Result

Final score

360 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 pts

Match videos

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