Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.05 – 218.31

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.3 ±9.3

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 143.1Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 117.66Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 18.29Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.3 ±11

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 68.99Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 60.89Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 88.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8046, 1922, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8046, 1922, 509

Auto

42.9 16%

Teleop

157.7 58%

Endgame

73.4 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 172, 11336, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 172, 11336, 4761

Auto

28.6 13%

Teleop

112.0 51%

Endgame

77.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.1pts

Blue projected score218.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.7
Score range: 184–313
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 187.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.3Season APEX345.3

42.9Auto28.6

157.7Teleop112

73.4Endgame77.8

6Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	21
teleop	90	67
endgame	39	34
foul	0	0
total	199	122

Result

Final score

199 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 pts

Match videos

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