Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.21 – 192.75

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 96 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.8 ±11.2

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 88.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 45.74Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9056CyberHuskies 9056

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 38.16Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.9 ±12.8

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 20.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 84.42Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 87.76Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 172, 8046, 9056

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 172, 8046, 9056

Auto

20.7 13%

Teleop

103.7 63%

Endgame

39.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4546, 11157, 3597

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 11157, 3597

Auto

40.6 22%

Teleop

105.1 57%

Endgame

39.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.2pts

Blue projected score192.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.5
Score range: 139–226
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 180.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.8Season APEX219.9

20.7Auto40.6

103.7Teleop105.1

39.3Endgame39.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	11
teleop	21	37
endgame	16	27
foul	20	10
total	88	85

Result

Final score

88 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 96 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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