Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.33 – 223.47

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259 ±13.3

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 70.43Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 69.05Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -8.15Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.6 ±10.5

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 53.5Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 10.99Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 158.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4564, 4546, 7314

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4564, 4546, 7314

Auto

23.2 19%

Teleop

65.9 53%

Endgame

34.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11336, 509, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11336, 509, 6324

Auto

26.0 12%

Teleop

120.3 54%

Endgame

75.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.3pts

Blue projected score223.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.1
Score range: 98–256
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 181.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259Season APEX456.6

23.2Auto26

65.9Teleop120.3

34.9Endgame75.6

34Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	30
teleop	45	138
endgame	45	69
foul	0	20
total	105	257

Result

Final score

105 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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