Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

466.47 – 111.3

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 641.2 ±9.8

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 87.56Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 163.83Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 215.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217 ±12.2

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 30.61Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 52.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 27.78Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4761, 133, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

466.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4761, 133, 238

Auto

79.7 18%

Teleop

257.1 58%

Endgame

110.0 25%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3597, 811, 2523

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3597, 811, 2523

Auto

15.1 15%

Teleop

52.1 51%

Endgame

34.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score466.5pts

Blue projected score111.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 355.2
Score range: 79–498
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 628 vs event baseline 179.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

641.2Season APEX217

79.7Auto15.1

257.1Teleop52.1

110Endgame34

43Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	18
teleop	214	100
endgame	92	55
foul	30	5
total	450	178

Result

Final score

450 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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