Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.79 – 84.23

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.7 ±12.2

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 27.25Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9056CyberHuskies 9056

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 8.47Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 43.07Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.1 ±12.7

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 52.23Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 5.02Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 26.98Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4041, 9056, 9055

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4041, 9056, 9055

Auto

20.2 36%

Teleop

25.0 45%

Endgame

10.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4473, 6895, 5902

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4473, 6895, 5902

Auto

28.3 36%

Teleop

30.8 39%

Endgame

19.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.8pts

Blue projected score84.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.4
Score range: 47–116
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 179.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.7Season APEX205.1

20.2Auto28.3

25Teleop30.8

10.3Endgame19.8

47Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	31	85
endgame	26	27
foul	5	0
total	76	129

Result

Final score

76 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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