Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.54 – 149.96

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.3 ±11.7

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -14.65Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 7.21Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 16.98Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.4 ±12.2

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 72.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 25.47Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 52.11Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7314, 509, 1350

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7314, 509, 1350

Auto

7.3 81%

Teleop

-10.0 0%

Endgame

11.7 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4925, 11157, 811

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4925, 11157, 811

Auto

26.4 18%

Teleop

80.6 54%

Endgame

41.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score9.5pts

Blue projected score150pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.4
Score range: -22–182
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 180.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.3Season APEX217.4

7.3Auto26.4

-10Teleop80.6

11.7Endgame41.1

129Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	53	81
endgame	9	49
foul	0	15
total	76	167

Result

Final score

76 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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