Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.19 – 395.7

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 382

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.7 ±13.3

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 76.68Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 80.68Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 10.83Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.6 ±9.3

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 40.07Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 137.28Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 218.35Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4546, 69, 6895

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 69, 6895

Auto

23.3 15%

Teleop

82.5 52%

Endgame

53.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1512, 8046, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 8046, 238

Auto

75.4 21%

Teleop

208.3 57%

Endgame

83.3 23%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.2pts

Blue projected score395.7pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -227.5
Score range: 135–429
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 181.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.7Season APEX681.6

23.3Auto75.4

82.5Teleop208.3

53.3Endgame83.3

39Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	55
teleop	85	240
endgame	5	82
foul	0	5
total	103	382

Result

Final score

103 – 382

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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