Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.23 – 58.95

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.7 ±12.8

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 68.04Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9056CyberHuskies 9056

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 2.47Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 34.72Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.2 ±11.7

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 11.24Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 41.09Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 6.62Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4925, 9056, 8410

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4925, 9056, 8410

Auto

6.3 7%

Teleop

69.4 77%

Endgame

14.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6895, 1512, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6895, 1512, 509

Auto

17.7 38%

Teleop

10.8 23%

Endgame

17.9 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.2pts

Blue projected score59pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.3
Score range: 26–138
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.7Season APEX295.2

6.3Auto17.7

69.4Teleop10.8

14.9Endgame17.9

19Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	6
teleop	60	27
endgame	41	16
foul	0	5
total	114	54

Result

Final score

114 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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