Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.56 – 147.81

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

237 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.9 ±12.8

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 155.11Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 18.63Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 21.82Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349 ±11

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 32.29Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 50.24Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 65.28Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 133, 1721, 9443

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 133, 1721, 9443

Auto

46.5 26%

Teleop

103.4 59%

Endgame

25.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1512, 4473, 4925

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 4473, 4925

Auto

18.7 13%

Teleop

87.6 62%

Endgame

35.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.6pts

Blue projected score147.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.8
Score range: 113–231
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 196.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.9Season APEX349

46.5Auto18.7

103.4Teleop87.6

25.9Endgame35.6

49Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	13
teleop	127	94
endgame	41	54
foul	30	5
total	237	166

Result

Final score

237 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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