Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.82 – 407.12

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 430

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.7 ±11.6

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 11.27Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 81.99Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 26.56Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.7 ±9.3

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 101.07Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 218.07Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 87.98Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 509, 4564, 5902

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 509, 4564, 5902

Auto

19.8 19%

Teleop

44.4 42%

Endgame

40.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1922, 238, 7674

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1922, 238, 7674

Auto

79.5 20%

Teleop

218.5 55%

Endgame

101.3 25%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.8pts

Blue projected score407.1pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -287.3
Score range: 88–439
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 179.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.7Season APEX700.7

19.8Auto79.5

44.4Teleop218.5

40.6Endgame101.3

68Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	75
teleop	17	250
endgame	39	80
foul	5	25
total	76	430

Result

Final score

76 – 430

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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