Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.59 – 196.31

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.4 ±12.8

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 71.91Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 0.99Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -12.31Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.3 ±12.2

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 77.76Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 46.09Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 72.46Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 58, 4034, 7314

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 58, 4034, 7314

Auto

18.7 30%

Teleop

30.1 48%

Endgame

14.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4761, 9055, 4546

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4761, 9055, 4546

Auto

17.5 10%

Teleop

100.1 57%

Endgame

58.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.6pts

Blue projected score196.3pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.7
Score range: 28–229
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 181.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.4Season APEX321.3

18.7Auto17.5

30.1Teleop100.1

14Endgame58.6

89Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	51	156
endgame	18	52
foul	10	0
total	96	235

Result

Final score

96 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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