Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.21 – 86.98

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.2 ±12.8

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 26.55Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 33.94Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 26.72Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.1 ±12.2

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 49.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 23.58Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 13.77Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2523, 4041, 1721

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2523, 4041, 1721

Auto

5.8 8%

Teleop

53.7 76%

Endgame

11.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 811, 1350, 9443

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 811, 1350, 9443

Auto

19.2 24%

Teleop

34.3 43%

Endgame

27.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score87pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.2
Score range: 55–119
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 176.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.2Season APEX200.1

5.8Auto19.2

53.7Teleop34.3

11.4Endgame27.2

61Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	31
teleop	26	38
endgame	4	25
foul	35	10
total	85	104

Result

Final score

85 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 9.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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