Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.7 – 71.22

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.2 ±11

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 42.59Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 70.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 82.44Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.2 ±12.8

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -16.51Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 7.54Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 80.19Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1512, 172, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 172, 4564

Auto

45.1 25%

Teleop

91.7 51%

Endgame

41.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7314, 6762, 7674

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7314, 6762, 7674

Auto

18.1 24%

Teleop

46.6 61%

Endgame

11.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.7pts

Blue projected score71.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.5
Score range: 39–228
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 176.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.2Season APEX232.2

45.1Auto18.1

91.7Teleop46.6

41.3Endgame11.5

24Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	12
teleop	117	80
endgame	49	41
foul	0	5
total	208	138

Result

Final score

208 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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