Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.5 – 131.06

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.9 ±11.2

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 36.15Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 6.37Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 140.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278 ±10.4

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 34.91Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 74.06Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 22.09Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4041, 6895, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4041, 6895, 6324

Auto

30.7 18%

Teleop

93.6 55%

Endgame

45.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3597, 58, 1350

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3597, 58, 1350

Auto

19.0 15%

Teleop

64.0 49%

Endgame

46.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.5pts

Blue projected score131.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.4
Score range: 99–216
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 175.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.9Season APEX278

30.7Auto19

93.6Teleop64

45.6Endgame46.3

60Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	25
teleop	89	73
endgame	57	48
foul	5	0
total	203	146

Result

Final score

203 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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