Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.96 – 192.35

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.4 ±11.2

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 6.24Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 132.57Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 2.15Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370 ±11.1

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 123.15Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 23.71Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 45.49Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9443, 1058, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9443, 1058, 509

Auto

47.3 39%

Teleop

46.5 39%

Endgame

26.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8046, 5902, 9055

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8046, 5902, 9055

Auto

37.4 23%

Teleop

98.4 60%

Endgame

26.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141pts

Blue projected score192.4pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.4
Score range: 110–223
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 175.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.4Season APEX370

47.3Auto37.4

46.5Teleop98.4

26.3Endgame26.9

94Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	56
teleop	108	98
endgame	52	53
foul	0	15
total	197	222

Result

Final score

197 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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