Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.57 – 177

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 91.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.8 ±12.2

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 51.08Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 49.15Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 16.34Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.3 ±11

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 43.66Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 70.79Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 62.55Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4925, 11336, 2712

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4925, 11336, 2712

Auto

13.6 11%

Teleop

67.9 55%

Endgame

41.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 811, 7674, 172

/ 100 compat

Projected

177 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 811, 7674, 172

Auto

36.2 20%

Teleop

95.7 53%

Endgame

48.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.6pts

Blue projected score177pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.4
Score range: 86–208
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 173.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.8Season APEX315.3

13.6Auto36.2

67.9Teleop95.7

41.1Endgame48

78Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	45
teleop	117	157
endgame	70	67
foul	0	0
total	208	269

Result

Final score

208 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 91.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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