Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.5 – 225.91

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±12.8

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 43.83Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 28.19Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 12.48Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.9 ±12.4

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 203.97Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 32.17Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9056CyberHuskies 9056

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX -10.23Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1512, 2523, 6762

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 2523, 6762

Auto

18.7 25%

Teleop

53.7 71%

Endgame

2.9 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 1721, 9056

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 238, 1721, 9056

Auto

43.3 20%

Teleop

97.5 46%

Endgame

70.9 33%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.5pts

Blue projected score225.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.4
Score range: 54–257
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 173.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254Season APEX417.9

18.7Auto43.3

53.7Teleop97.5

2.9Endgame70.9

71Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	54
teleop	42	95
endgame	26	10
foul	0	85
total	80	244

Result

Final score

80 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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