Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.98 – 222.27

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.8 ±12.4

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 41.43Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 105.24Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 7.31Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.4 ±11.7

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -11Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 83.69Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 149.58Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8410, 1922, 6895

/ 100 compat

Projected

154 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8410, 1922, 6895

Auto

21.4 13%

Teleop

105.6 62%

Endgame

42.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7314, 2648, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7314, 2648, 133

Auto

43.0 21%

Teleop

132.0 63%

Endgame

33.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154pts

Blue projected score222.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.3
Score range: 123–253
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 173.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.8Season APEX402.4

21.4Auto43

105.6Teleop132

42.9Endgame33.5

42Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	35
teleop	79	162
endgame	52	18
foul	0	0
total	169	215

Result

Final score

169 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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