Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.63 – 218.96

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162 ±13.9

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 3.03Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 12.96Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 30.64Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.1 ±11.6

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 65.16Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 98.21Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 55.59Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9443, 2712, 11157

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9443, 2712, 11157

Auto

21.7 48%

Teleop

13.8 30%

Endgame

10.1 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4925, 4564, 9055

/ 100 compat

Projected

219 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4925, 4564, 9055

Auto

30.8 14%

Teleop

134.9 63%

Endgame

48.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.6pts

Blue projected score219pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.3
Score range: 15–251
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 175.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162Season APEX268.1

21.7Auto30.8

13.8Teleop134.9

10.1Endgame48.8

80Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	40
teleop	34	43
endgame	20	11
foul	5	40
total	78	134

Result

Final score

78 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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