Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.51 – 40.11

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.5 ±11

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 47.08Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 45.25Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 83.18Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.3 ±12.2

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 7.51Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX -2.87Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 35.47Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 811, 1512, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 811, 1512, 4761

Auto

8.3 5%

Teleop

86.0 50%

Endgame

76.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6762, 509, 4473

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6762, 509, 4473

Auto

11.5 27%

Teleop

10.6 25%

Endgame

19.9 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.5pts

Blue projected score40.1pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.4
Score range: 8–208
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.5Season APEX230.3

8.3Auto11.5

86Teleop10.6

76.6Endgame19.9

67Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	4
teleop	102	44
endgame	24	39
foul	20	0
total	159	87

Result

Final score

159 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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