Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.01 – 180.58

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.5 ±9.8

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 14.61Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 114.91Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 27.49Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.7 ±11.7

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 81.73Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 64.48Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 34.37Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 509, 1922, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 509, 1922, 4041

Auto

28.6 19%

Teleop

80.6 54%

Endgame

40.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 58, 172, 8410

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 58, 172, 8410

Auto

25.5 14%

Teleop

109.6 60%

Endgame

47.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157pts

Blue projected score180.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.6
Score range: 122–216
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 196.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.5Season APEX315.7

28.6Auto25.5

80.6Teleop109.6

40.9Endgame47.7

47Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	28
teleop	78	153
endgame	67	63
foul	5	5
total	172	249

Result

Final score

172 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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