Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.34 – 244.6

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.3 ±11.7

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 42.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 193.17Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 24.08Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.1 ±11.2

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 144.01Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 73.8Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 26.79Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11336, 238, 2523

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11336, 238, 2523

Auto

62.4 25%

Teleop

120.7 48%

Endgame

68.2 27%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1058, 172, 4034

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1058, 172, 4034

Auto

68.8 30%

Teleop

119.2 51%

Endgame

44.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score259.3pts

Blue projected score244.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.7
Score range: 213–291
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 175.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.3Season APEX425.1

62.4Auto68.8

120.7Teleop119.2

68.2Endgame44.7

87Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	83
teleop	144	58
endgame	92	12
foul	10	5
total	303	158

Result

Final score

303 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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