Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.01 – 197.81

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.7 ±12.7

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 32.21Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 14.43Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 97.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.7 ±12.8

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 22.73Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 161.58Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 13.5Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1307, 9443, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1307, 9443, 4564

Auto

30.9 25%

Teleop

58.3 48%

Endgame

33.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2712, 133, 6895

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2712, 133, 6895

Auto

33.4 18%

Teleop

112.7 60%

Endgame

42.1 22%

Strengths

· 133 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144pts

Blue projected score197.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.8
Score range: 113–229
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.7Season APEX330.7

30.9Auto33.4

58.3Teleop112.7

33.2Endgame42.1

29Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	47
teleop	46	69
endgame	56	10
foul	15	0
total	131	126

Result

Final score

131 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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