Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.35 – 272.84

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.2 ±12.8

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 24.48Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -7.32Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 12.19Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.4 ±11.7

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 37.1Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 182.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 53.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1721, 7314, 3597

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1721, 7314, 3597

Auto

2.2 10%

Teleop

19.8 86%

Endgame

1.1 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5902, 238, 4546

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5902, 238, 4546

Auto

72.0 28%

Teleop

116.9 45%

Endgame

69.0 27%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.4pts

Blue projected score272.8pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -243.5
Score range: -2–304
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 172.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.2Season APEX450.4

2.2Auto72

19.8Teleop116.9

1.1Endgame69

59Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	51
teleop	39	136
endgame	33	64
foul	0	70
total	83	321

Result

Final score

83 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree