Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.28 – 98.88

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.1 ±11.7

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 21.08Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 107.04Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 31.16Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±12.2

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 41.58Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 9.71Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 47.59Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8410, 8046, 11336

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8410, 8046, 11336

Auto

18.5 12%

Teleop

102.1 65%

Endgame

36.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4041, 6762, 811

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4041, 6762, 811

Auto

7.4 8%

Teleop

51.8 54%

Endgame

36.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.3pts

Blue projected score98.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.4
Score range: 68–190
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 172.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.1Season APEX199.9

18.5Auto7.4

102.1Teleop51.8

36.4Endgame36.8

62Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	6
teleop	167	39
endgame	79	17
foul	5	0
total	281	62

Result

Final score

281 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree