Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.19 – 112.9

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.6 ±11.2

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 7.28Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 19.49Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 168.42Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±11.7

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 38.31Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 5.04Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 69.55Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1350, 4034, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1350, 4034, 238

Auto

52.5 29%

Teleop

79.6 45%

Endgame

45.9 26%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1721, 509, 172

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1721, 509, 172

Auto

22.9 23%

Teleop

32.1 33%

Endgame

42.5 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.2pts

Blue projected score112.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.3
Score range: 83–225
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 169.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.6Season APEX273

52.5Auto22.9

79.6Teleop32.1

45.9Endgame42.5

133Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	11
teleop	104	17
endgame	61	25
foul	0	10
total	257	63

Result

Final score

257 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree