Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.72 – 52.12

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 130.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.9 ±13.3

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 85.93Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 36.92Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 77.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.3 ±12.4

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 79.89Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX -3.86Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX -23.91Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4546, 8410, 4473

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 8410, 4473

Auto

10.1 5%

Teleop

132.5 66%

Endgame

59.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8046, 2712, 6762

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8046, 2712, 6762

Auto

18.7 38%

Teleop

24.7 50%

Endgame

5.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.7pts

Blue projected score52.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.6
Score range: 21–232
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.9Season APEX339.3

10.1Auto18.7

132.5Teleop24.7

59Endgame5.6

10Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	33
teleop	47	126
endgame	30	50
foul	5	0
total	97	209

Result

Final score

97 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 130.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree