Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.44 – 316.55

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 329

Prediction missed · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.1 ±11.6

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 167.2Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 78.19Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 85.05Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 617.7 ±9.9

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 77.69Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 134.77Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 104.09Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 133, 811, 1307

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 133, 811, 1307

Auto

38.6 13%

Teleop

195.9 63%

Endgame

74.3 24%

Strengths

· 133 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9055, 6324, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9055, 6324, 1922

Auto

47.9 15%

Teleop

185.3 60%

Endgame

76.1 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score330.4pts

Blue projected score316.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.9
Score range: 287–360
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 168.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.1Season APEX617.7

38.6Auto47.9

195.9Teleop185.3

74.3Endgame76.1

22Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	48
teleop	85	213
endgame	49	68
foul	10	0
total	187	329

Result

Final score

187 – 329

Prediction missed · off by 77.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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