Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.16 – 209.16

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.8 ±11.2

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 158.78Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 58.28Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 69.1Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±12.8

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 95.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 72.95Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 40.45Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1058, 8410, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1058, 8410, 4761

Auto

35.0 12%

Teleop

158.6 56%

Endgame

89.2 32%

Strengths

· 1058 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4546, 4925, 1721

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4546, 4925, 1721

Auto

14.2 7%

Teleop

126.0 65%

Endgame

55.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score286.2pts

Blue projected score209.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77
Score range: 178–317
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 173.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.8Season APEX272

35Auto14.2

158.6Teleop126

89.2Endgame55

38Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	19
teleop	124	91
endgame	72	20
foul	0	0
total	212	130

Result

Final score

212 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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