Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.2 – 318.16

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 113 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.6 ±13.3

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 0.07Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 73.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX -16.48Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.5 ±11.7

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 65.96Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 140.23Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 111.97Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6895, 9055, 6762

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6895, 9055, 6762

Auto

28.0 50%

Teleop

30.9 55%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2523, 1922, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2523, 1922, 4564

Auto

33.3 10%

Teleop

208.6 64%

Endgame

84.1 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.2pts

Blue projected score318.2pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -261
Score range: 25–350
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 177.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.6Season APEX439.5

28Auto33.3

30.9Teleop208.6

-2.6Endgame84.1

98Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	37
teleop	22	45
endgame	15	20
foul	5	0
total	67	102

Result

Final score

67 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 113 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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