Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.28 – 84.31

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.5 ±10.5

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 28.32Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 98.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 9.16Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.3 ±12.7

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 60.67Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -9.05Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 32.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5902, 6324, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5902, 6324, 1512

Auto

16.5 14%

Teleop

55.9 47%

Endgame

47.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 811, 7314, 11336

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 811, 7314, 11336

Auto

20.2 23%

Teleop

32.5 36%

Endgame

36.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score84.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 52–168
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 178.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.5Season APEX220.3

16.5Auto20.2

55.9Teleop32.5

47.5Endgame36.5

157Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	19
teleop	96	39
endgame	30	44
foul	35	10
total	205	112

Result

Final score

205 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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