Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.64 – 9.25

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448 ±10.4

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 155.39Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 33.98Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 60.27Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.3 ±12.8

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX -10.06Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 15.6Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 3.71Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 133, 4041, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 133, 4041, 58

Auto

40.1 17%

Teleop

137.7 58%

Endgame

59.9 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 509, 11157, 4034

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 509, 11157, 4034

Auto

16.5 100%

Teleop

-26.1 0%

Endgame

12.7 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score249.6pts

Blue projected score9.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 240.4
Score range: -23–282
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 179.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448Season APEX199.3

40.1Auto16.5

137.7Teleop-26.1

59.9Endgame12.7

67Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	17
teleop	184	28
endgame	45	17
foul	35	0
total	287	62

Result

Final score

287 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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