Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.87 – 305.54

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 154.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±12.2

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 64.31Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 112.12Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 48.44Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.7 ±9.9

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 33.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 149.87Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 121.89Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9443, 4473, 3597

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9443, 4473, 3597

Auto

33.0 15%

Teleop

115.6 54%

Endgame

66.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1307, 238, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1307, 238, 1058

Auto

72.9 24%

Teleop

165.1 53%

Endgame

71.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score224.9pts

Blue projected score305.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.7
Score range: 193–338
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 175.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.2Season APEX650.7

33Auto72.9

115.6Teleop165.1

66.6Endgame71.7

0Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	99
teleop	26	174
endgame	6	119
foul	5	40
total	43	432

Result

Final score

43 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 154.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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