Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.47 – 165.55

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 99 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±11

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 57.99Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 40.45Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 42.03Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±13.3

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 22.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 106.5Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 36.48Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4761, 172, 69

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4761, 172, 69

Auto

23.5 18%

Teleop

57.7 44%

Endgame

49.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6895, 4564, 1721

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6895, 4564, 1721

Auto

34.7 22%

Teleop

82.9 53%

Endgame

38.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.5pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.1
Score range: 109–197
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 173.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.6Season APEX188.6

23.5Auto34.7

57.7Teleop82.9

49.9Endgame38.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	20
teleop	174	70
endgame	95	27
foul	0	5
total	295	122

Result

Final score

295 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 99 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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