Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.03 – 69

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 60 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.8 ±12.2

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 43.55Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 17.74Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 115.74Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±11

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX -4.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 52.44Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 20.59Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5902, 6762, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

177 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5902, 6762, 133

Auto

41.5 26%

Teleop

82.7 53%

Endgame

32.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11336, 2648, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11336, 2648, 4041

Auto

12.9 18%

Teleop

20.6 29%

Endgame

38.4 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108
Score range: 38–208
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 170.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.8Season APEX319.8

41.5Auto12.9

82.7Teleop20.6

32.7Endgame38.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	18
teleop	116	112
endgame	15	50
foul	10	5
total	173	185

Result

Final score

173 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 60 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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