Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.67 – 109.58

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.8 ±11

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 79.78Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 41.14Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX -23.25Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.8 ±12.2

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 61Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 41.63Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 6.95Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9055, 3597, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9055, 3597, 509

Auto

20.2 22%

Teleop

32.0 34%

Endgame

41.1 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1307, 7314, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1307, 7314, 1512

Auto

11.7 12%

Teleop

57.6 58%

Endgame

30.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.7pts

Blue projected score109.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.9
Score range: 66–142
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 177.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.8Season APEX312.8

20.2Auto11.7

32Teleop57.6

41.1Endgame30

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	58	13
endgame	30	1
foul	20	25
total	121	51

Result

Final score

121 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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