Qualification · Qualification 13
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
89.44 – 140.89
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
383 – 89
Prediction missed · off by 172.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.7 ±10.7
Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 28.78Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 109.3Event APEX -12.33Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 72.99Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236 ±12.8
Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 50.45Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 54.71Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 35.73Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8046, 4546, 1922
51
/ 100 compatProjected
89.4 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 8046, 4546, 1922
Auto
15.6 21%
Teleop
40.3 54%
Endgame
18.1 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11157, 7674, 6895
62
/ 100 compatProjected
140.9 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 11157, 7674, 6895
Auto
34.3 23%
Teleop
67.0 46%
Endgame
45.0 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score89.4pts
Blue projected score140.9pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample180alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -51.4
- Score range
- 58–172
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
629.7Season APEX236
15.6Auto34.3
40.3Teleop67
18.1Endgame45
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 37 |
| teleop | 241 | 35 |
| endgame | 91 | 12 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 383 | 89 |
Result
Final score
383 – 89
Prediction missed · off by 172.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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