Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.61 – 173.07

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 117.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.3 ±12.2

2523Tech Storm

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 56.47Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 27.37Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 55.77Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.8 ±11.6

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 50.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 53.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 69.03Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2523, 1350, 5902

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2523, 1350, 5902

Auto

20.7 15%

Teleop

84.5 62%

Endgame

30.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4564, 4473, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4564, 4473, 133

Auto

9.6 6%

Teleop

101.3 64%

Endgame

46.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.6pts

Blue projected score173.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.5
Score range: 110–203
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.3Season APEX388.8

20.7Auto9.6

84.5Teleop101.3

30.2Endgame46.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	59
teleop	42	235
endgame	34	95
foul	15	0
total	121	389

Result

Final score

121 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 117.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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